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Thursday, March 21, 2013
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Mad Money, March 21, 2013
Thu 21 Mar 13 | 06:00 PM ET
The following transcript has not been checked for accuracy. been so hot that it's hard to believe the peoples republic won't be igniting soon. those freight numbers are too positive. plus, let's remember there is a ton of forgiveness in this market. stocks that disappointed not that long ago are well above where they were. the sellers materialized for an hour or so. the market remains red hot with ross stores joining the stores coming back that were thought to be down for the count. coach showing path. lulu recovering. walmart, costco, nike reporting tonight looks real good. i continue to be impressed how well the american consumer seems to be holding up. yes, housing. housing is amazing. it was the lead story in the new york times this morning about the coming housing shortage. we are obviously not building enough houses in this country given the affordability of homes since they are the highest since they've been keeping work on that number. it's interesting to see how we can keep millions of people to work as we take home building from 1 million to 1.2 million this year and 1.5 million next year. no one is talking that bull expect for me. are they going to offset most of the negatives? yes. most. which is why i say i want the stock market lower so we can do buying without feeling like i'm stick moog i neck out. the risk/reward is not that good enough to merit new commitments up here. upon further reflection, ben bernanke might be on to something more than lip service when he says we could slip back to weakness. there is enough worrisome evidence to give me pause and make us take a pause from buying. don't buy, don't buy, don't buy. until we have a clearer picture of what can go right and not just an obvious picture of what can go wrong. todd in new hampshire. todd. caller: hey, cramer, love the show. well, thank you. caller: bought shares of radiant, mortgage insurance. shot up like a rocketship. i searched for similar ways to play the housing recovery. you mentioned insurance companies with rising rates. and the title insurers. in light of the fed's pledge to keep interest rates low and long if necessary and possibility rates could creep up anyway, what do you think about first american financial? faf. here is the way we play it. when i've got a winner, i don't try to find another win their could be better than a winner. radiant is the horse to be on. radiant is what it you play this. this thing has got much further to run, rdn. gary in ohio, gary. caller: hi, jim, how are you? supervalu closed on a sale today. supervalu got an upgrade, stock upgrade and right now 40% of the stock is short. question i have, jim, does this possibly set supervalu up for a major short squeeze like what happened to vw several years ago? no. i don't think so. it does -- safeway's been doing very well. kroger's been doing very well. it's possible that svu does well. right now it's the revenge of the nerd time in the supermarket business. have in california, please. dave. caller: boo-yah, jim. grateful greetings to cnbc's new oracle of olligopoly. i like that. how about syria ogolopoly. caller: i was inspired by one of your callers with multiple reits in his portfolio. that was a great call with that guy. caller: i like the reits. i followed his lead. i have one in retail, one in forest products and one in senior care already. what i'm looking for is who is the best in breed in commercial office space? best in breed in commercial -- i like that egp. you might think that has too much warehouse, but they are a great industrial property company. i think they're terrific. egp haen a real winner for us. i'm going to send you there. i do think, by the way, that boston property, mort zuckerman has a really good company if you want pure office. i like egp. i think it's inexpensive. the negatives, let's say they've gotten louder lately. you know what? this is a very good time to -- don't buy, until we get a better picture of what could go right rather than what just could go wrong. mad money will be right back. coming ou-data into dollars? as business moves around more data than ever, click technology's connections to social and mobile put you in touch with a winner or is oracle's miss a sign to stay away? cramer talks to the ceo next. later -- chief choice? some high-profile companies have recently had big changes at the top. from the golden arches to the king of club retailers. but are these blue chip shares still strong with new leadership at the helm? cramer's looking inside the executive suite to find out. all coming up on mad money. don't miss a second of mad money. follow @jim cramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer. hash tag mad tweets. send jim an e-mail at cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ help brazil reduce its overall reliance on foreign imports with the launchof the country's largest petrochemicaloperation. ♪♪ ♪♪ when emerson takes upthe challenge, it's never been done before simply becomesconsider it solved. emerson. ♪♪ ♪♪ it's not what you think. it's a phoenix with 4 wheels. it's a hawk with night vision goggles. it's marching to the beat of adifferent drum. and where beauty meets brains. it's big ideas with smaller footprints. and knowing there's always morein the world to see. it's the all-new lincoln mkz. on a on a day where tech especially got hammered courtesy of the big oracle disappointment, is there life among the rubble created by oracle's blow-up? specifically i want to talk about qlik technologies. it's a business intelligence software company roaring of late, up 22% year-to-date. more than 50% from the november bottom. pretty fabulous. it got a little hit today, down 52 cents or 1.9%. to put it in march madness terms, we've got to find out will qlik crash and burn like kentucky or are they the gonzaga? i'm picking louisville, just so you know. one of the major tech themes that work with this idea of big data, there is all this digital information out there increase buying the day. companies need to find the best way to analyze this to optimize the way their businesses are run. that's where qlik comes in. traditionally the way this field works, you have your data, your information technology puts together a report. then you can access through various software applications. qlik changed that model. they've developed a user-driven business that allows the people making decisions to access and analyze the data rectly. it allows people to collaborate and share their findings. volkswagen uses the qlik platform and suntrust chose their platform for analyzing corporate performance management, risk management, finance, many more. qlik reported february 14th and results as well as forecast for 2014 were so strong the stock shot up four points the next day. tons of congratulations on this conference call. they had a rough year in 2012. as of a month ago it looked like the business turned the corner. the stock is far from cheap, selling 47 times next year's earnings estimates even with a 33% growth rate. let's check in with lars bjork, president and ceo of qlik technologies. welcome to mad money. how are you, sir? i'm great. lars, we've been recommending suntrust. we think it's a great regional bank. since this is the first time you're on, i'm a bank officer, lending officer atsuntrust. how does qliq view help me? what you want to have is a dashboard in front of you so you can view that customer, jim cramer in front of you, what is his portfolio doing? what are his options. i want to have that at my fingertips. what would happen otherwise? would i have to make calls? let's say traditional network management company would not give me that report to be able to manipulate and find out stuff? i think you will get a snapshot, but a static view. you want the dynamic interface. you want to drill in, what happened a year ago? what if this happens? what if we simulate the interest rate going up? what happens if europe hits another bump? that's the type of things you want to put into power of the user. here is what i think people would say. who is it that would answer that stuff? is the data, is the information, the answer in that data? very much so. it is. very much so. i'll take another example. everyone knows about nasdaq. they now have a nas-dash. that is managing their business on a day-to-day basis. seeing what's happening in the market on a realtime basis. the government's often talking about they could, they would love to spot insider trading when it happens. spot patterns that don't seem right. should the government be using qlik view? absolutely. they don't have it? not to my knowledge. one thing i saw was this is from a j&p report. big data not only drives individual use cases, but puts spotlight on the deficiencies of the legacy analytics players. what are the deficiencies you put the spotlight on? i think we touched on it a little bit. the big important thing here is self-service. you want a tool you master. instead of being provided to as a static view. you want to be able to shift a model that you analyze your data as the business shifts. you want to be in control of the experience. you want to have what we call the consumerization of enterprise software. the same experience you have using your iphone. why shouldn't you have that in enterprise software? i hear you, but i also wonder. you had tremendous european sales. i know you're good in america. we just had oracle last night. oracle is a company i'm fond of, frankly. mr. allison is one of my idols in business. they can't do as well in this environment. why is qlik view doing well if oracle can't? i think we are in one spot, they're total market. i think we drive the next generation of software. ease of use, time to value, agility and flexibility are the key drivers. more and more corporations are seeing that. if i don't empower my employees to make smarter decisions, i'm missing out on a big opportunity. we've been in that business 20 years. we only focused on the user and the user's behavior when it comes to interacting with data. mark from sales force has been on our show. he's trying to develop a dashboard people can use, sales people can use on the road, for instance. why is yours better than his or do they work together? they work together. i think mark built a company. he's disrupted an industry just like we are doing in this industry we are in. one of our most common data sources for our clients is his system. so we sit on top of sales force and maybe two or three other sources and provide you with a dashboard of insight from those data sources. i was at twitter at their new york city headquarters today. it's quite fun. they get lots of data. they are always trying to analyze where the trends are, too. are they doing work with qlik view? do you do social media where you look at big patterns and reach conclusions? i wouldut it this way. we are the last mile of that trend of unstructured data. what i mean by that, you've got to see the pattern. once you have that, i've got to have a tool to analyze it. i wouldn't say we are the tool that sits directly on top of social media. we could do it, but we are the tool that can feed in social media into other types of data sources. pepsico. i'm trying to figure out modern social media and have the best decisions made from it. i bring in qlik view and we ask questions of the software? i'm trying to figure out -- what you want to do is have a realistic view. you don't want to just look at social feeds. you want to look at sales and comparisons with social feeds, trending, what's happening in the stores. how did this ad campaign run? that's where you get that view to make the smart decision for all the data. last question. ibm bought many companies to try to become more and more intelligent. you want to stay independent or is there a level where an ibm calls you and we've got to add you to the portfolio? i think you should ask them thuestion. that's fair. i would say this. there is such great demand in the market for analytics, the next wave we pioneered, you can never rule anything out. we are out there to continue to create a successful company. time will tell. it's been very successful. that was a great quarter ofl the companies in software business, you're quite a contrast to oracle. oracle was painful today. that is lars bjork. ceo of qlik view technologies. this is where the growth is regardless of europe, regardless of the united states. these guys are hitting the cover off the ball. after the break, i'll try to make you even more money. coming up -- chief choice? some high-profile companies have recently had big changes at the top. from the golden arches to the king of club retailers. but are these blue chip shares still strong with new leadership at the helm? cramer's looking inside the executive suite to find out. ] curve has an equally thrilling, lesser-known counterpart. conquer themwith the exhilarating is 250. get great values on your favorite lexus models during the command performance sales event. this isthe pursuit of perfection. technology. arrival. with hertz gold plus rewards, you skip the counters, the lines, and the paperwork. zap. it's our fastest and easiest way to get you into your car. it's just another way you'll be traveling at the speed of hertz. beware beware of rules that are too sweep be to make sense. i always tell you whenever there is a sudden change in management at a company whose stock you own, when the ceo or worse actually, believe it or not, the chief financial officer leaves without warning, you absolutely must -- sell, sell, sell! but i've don't pushback on this rule, particularly on twitter @jim cramer. ceos retire all the time. that is not always a b thing. it's not always something we should worry about. the emphasis here is on the word sudden. when a top executive leaves without warning. more importantly, without a plan of succession. that's when you need to get scared, okay? and sell the darn stock. there is a difference between a sudden management change and planned succession. sudden management is when jeff skilling, the ceo of enron decided to quit for, quote, family reasons in the summer of 2002. the stock only went from 47 all the way down to zero. i don't know how that thing stopped at zero. or more recently we had a sudden management departure in the israeli semiconductor company that rallied like crazy in 2012 on the strength of truly incredibly seeming numbers. i recommended this early july. by the end of the month it was trading over $100. early september $119 stock, but then on september 10th, the cfo announced he would be retiring, personal reasons. the stock got banged down 101. three days later put it in the sell block because when the cfo leaves unexpectedly, you have to sell. especially with no transition. that's really key. sure enough the stock dropped about 50% since then even as the s&p 500 is up 8% over the same period. as far as i'm concerned, i'm keeping it in the penalty box, all right? we saw the same thing with olta salon that had given us huge games. february 13th it announced the ceo was stepping down. this came on the heels of the chief financial officer having left in october. ulta has a temporary guy, something you don't want in a retailer. march 8th when ulta was $89 and change, i told you not to touch it. the company reported after the close thursday and the stock plunged on disappointing guidance in just 24 hours. since then ulta rebounded back to $76. you managed to sidestep a 12% decline if you listened to me when i told you to sell. thank you herb greenberg. a brilliant retail analyst who downgraded ulta upgraded it after that quarter because the stock had come down 25% from recent highs. i respect him very much and the stock bounced four points since the upgrade. plus ulta has brought in a permanent chief financial officer. i am still telling you to stay away from this one until they find a permanent ceo and possibly longer. i think the trends don't look so good. you've got to have certainty at the top to get me to like that one. consider that two weeks ago true religion, the jeans company announced it wouldn't be renewing its contract with its founder and now former ceo who stepped down this tuesday. today we found out from the n york post those trying to sell itself might be getting out of the bidding. an unexpected leadership change is rarely a sign good things are happening. of course, not all unexpected ceo departures are negative. when a bad ceo gets the boot, see you later, that's always a good thing. hence why we have the mad money wall of shame to call out the incompetents. sometimes they need to see them on the wall of shame to get motivated. everybody already understands things are going poorly. for example, the dog that is groupon roared after it announced its foolish founder and ceo andrew mason was being axed at the end of february. same thing happened to avon when wall of shamer andrea young was forced to resign as ceo last april and had to step down as chairman in october. what about when a good ceo leaves or a great one? we never like losing a talented manager. it's always going to create additional uncertainty. as long as there is a succession plan in place, it shouldn't be that bad. it's certainly to the a deal breaker that should keep you away from a stock like when the people at the top leave unexpectedly. consider mcdonald's in march of 2012 relearned jim skinner, the brilliant ceo will be stepping down june 30th to be replaced by don thompson. i wish skinner could have stayed forever, but the transition was nothing like the shambles that was ulta salon because thompson is skinner's protege and heir apparent. the stock has been strong in 2013, rising ten points to nearly $100. thompson's seasoned, ready and rocking. mcd goes higher. how about costco? september 2011, founder and long-time ceo announced he would step down at the end of that year. senegal had an amazing track record. he was replaced by craig yelenek. since he took over, costco has given you a 35% return with dividends, including the big special dividend they announced last year. that outperformed the s&p 500. costco's latest quarter was excellent. again, i think the stock, room to run. then there is armed holdings. they announced a ceo succession plan earlier this week. as the current chief executive plans to step down in july. arm has success and ready to go the current president. he's groomed for the job. that is what a ceo retirement is supposed to look like. here is the bottom line. i don't like it when good ceos retire. it's only a red flag when a top executive retires suddenly, operative word suddenly, without warning, without preparation. when both the ceo and cfo leave to spend more time with their family, that's a real sign things could be just about to go haywire. be careful. the only exception, when a wall of shamer is fired. then you're free to start buying immediately unless he or she already destroyed the company. go to heartily in new york, please. caller: hey, how you doing, jim? how about you? caller: i'm oy.ka so me and my father, we have like 300 shares of yahoo. he bought it a while ago when it was somewhere around $16. didn't go anywhere for a while. went down, and now it's up more than $6 a share, i think. he thinks it's going to go up higher. they've been g up because of the ceo, i guess. i've been trying to convince him to sell some of it, maybe 50 shares or something. i think you're both right. first of all, no one got hurt taking a profit, ever, not that i know of. i do think yahoo goes higher. i think the modernization plans is really good. this melissa meyer, every move she made i endorsement right down to having people work in the same place to start to getting to know each other because the turnover at yahoo had been tremendous. joe in new york. caller: boo-yah! boo-yah. caller: a quick question about procter and gamble shares. would now be a good time to sell at a 52-week high and since share prices flatlined over the past month? i don't want to call it flatline. the stock has been very good. i was critical of him. he was a wall of shamer. he got taken down before the big spurt because he meant business. my charitable trust had a great position. rang the register because it was too juicy. i can't tell you to not sell if i sold. for the trust. don't sell at all because this stock on a pullback is all over again. when a ceo hits the road, it's worth the time to stop and take a look. if a play is in place, things may be fine. if it's a sudden move, you know what? that's a red flag all over. don't move. lightning round is coming up next! ] things. otherworldly things. but there are some things i've never seen before. this ge jet engine can understan 5,000 data samples per second. which is good for business. because planes use less fuel, spend less time on the ground and more time in the air. suddenly, faraway places don't seem so...fa ♪♪ ♪♪ runninga hard, try running four. fortunately we've got ink. it gives us 5x the rewards on our internet, phonecharges and cable, plus at office supply stores. rewards we put rightback into our business. this is the only thingwe've ever wanted to do and ink helps us do it. make your markwith ink from chase. ] thing, all? it's lots of things. all waking up. connecting to the global phenomenon we call the internet of everything. ♪♪ ♪♪ it's going to be amazing. and exciting. and maybe, most remarkably, not that far away. we're going to wake the world up. and watch, with eyes wide, as it gets to work. cisco. tomorrow starts here. it is it is time, it is time for the lightning round. when somebody calls and i tell them to buy, buy, buy or sell, sell, sell, then you hear this and it's over. are u ready skee-daddy for the lightning round? john in my home state of pennsylvania. john! caller: boo-yah! how you doing, jim? i'm waiting for the phillies to get started unless you're a pirate fan. caller: i'm calling about ameren pharmaceuticals. i've been following this company about the past year and a half. it looks like the two-headed swan in the marketplace with indications it's a one-hit wonder for product. the marketplace starved astrazeneca, merck and pfizer. we are going to veto it. this is like the mets without having dickey, okay? we get the picture r on that one? don't buy. let's go to tyler in virginia. tyler. caller: boo-yah, dr. cramer. boo-yah. caller: it a i like your opinion on travel centers of america. i got into it two months ago and it's up 40%. ring the register or hold on? i've been looking at this company trying to figure out what they are going to do with natural gas. the answer is, i've got to hold this, do homework and give you a much better view on it. it seems too exciting to me. edie in washington, d.c. caller: this is edie. what is your opinion of two harbors concerning the issuance of 50 million common shares of spy their spin-off and lowering their dividend? look, we don't want to see all that happen. remember, these are companies that do variable dividends, okay? whether it be annaly or hgnc. these are companies that do that and reinvest that money. don't worry about it. it's a good situation. louise in california. caller: professor cramer, thanks for all you do for the little guy. my start is rlgy. it was an ipo last october at the $32 range and it's in the $48 range now. i think it's great. i know the people at corcoran real well which is one of their high-end business. this is a better way to play the real estate market than trulia or zilo which has been good. i like toll brothers, too. i think realogy is a great place to be. i need to go to tom in michigan. tom. caller: hello, dr. cramer. doctor, yeah, professor, i love all these. caller: i'm arnold in troy, michigan. want to ask about a company called orbital science corporation. i bought a few shares years ago. i recommend it from time to time. we need a little more stable market for that one. let's hold off from that one. tom in new jersey. tom. caller: jimmy! yo, yo. caller: tommy from lafayette, new jersey. does cisco deserve the hit it got today? stephanie link, co-director of action alerts with me were in a tizzy this morning. we believe the long-term picture of cisco is so good. we know it caught a down turn today, but the long term is so good for the charitable trust. i like the ratio. cisco is terrific. with that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. lightning round sponsors by dt ameritrade. more rain... ♪♪ ♪♪ t ameritrade. tw ameritrade.t ameritrade. tw ameritrade.s ameritrade.t ameritrade. td ameritrade.rn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. and trade with papermoney to test-drive the market. ♪♪ ♪♪ all on thinkorswim. from td ameritrade. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ i don't want any trouble. i don't want any trouble either. ♪♪ ♪♪ you know you forgot to take your mask off, right? ♪♪ ♪♪ introducing the all-new beetle convertible. now every day is a top-down day. that's the powerof german engineering. to go. this is for real this time. step seven point two one two. verify and lock. command is locked. five seconds. three, two, one. standing by for capture. the most innovative software on the planet... dragon is captured. is connecting today's leading companies to places beyond it. siemens. answers. what are what are you supposed to make of the markets up and downs? what's going to happen tomorrow, next week or next month? this market is full of pitfalls. i've got to try to avoid them. the key to surviving an unpredictable market, don't have all your agricultures in one
This transcript is generated by automated closed captioning, has not been edited, and may not be entirely accurate. ©2011 CNBC.com
March 21 in history:
- 1960: Police in South Africa opened fire on a large crowd of black Africans demonstrating in a township near Johannesburg; at least 67 people died in what is called the Sharpeville Massacre.
- 1918: German general Erich Ludendorff led shock troops along a 60-mi (100-km) front and rolled back the Allies as much as 40 mi (65 km) to begin the Second Battle of the Somme during World War I.
- 1804: The Napoleonic Code was promulgated in France, replacing a collection of Roman law, local customs, and ecclesiastical law.
- 1617: The American Indian princess Pocahontas, who befriended the English colony at Jamestown, Virginia, supposedly saved the life of Capt. John Smith, and became the wife of John Rolfe, died in London.