Line 5,074: |
Line 5,074: |
| | | |
| {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" | | {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" |
− | | <math>\mathrm{m,}\mathrm{b} ~=~ \text{man that is black}</math> | + | | <math>\mathrm{m,}\mathrm{b} ~=~ \text{man that is black}.</math> |
| |} | | |} |
| | | |
− | represented below in the equivalent form: | + | This is represented below in the equivalent form: |
| | | |
| {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" | | {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" |
Line 5,114: |
Line 5,114: |
| That is enough to puncture any notion that <math>\mathrm{b}\!</math> and <math>\mathrm{m}\!</math> are statistically independent, but let us continue to develop the plot a bit more. Putting all of the general formulas and particular facts together, we arrive at following summation of situation in the ''Othello'' case: | | That is enough to puncture any notion that <math>\mathrm{b}\!</math> and <math>\mathrm{m}\!</math> are statistically independent, but let us continue to develop the plot a bit more. Putting all of the general formulas and particular facts together, we arrive at following summation of situation in the ''Othello'' case: |
| | | |
− | If the fair sampling condition holds: | + | If the fair sampling condition were true, it would have the following consequence: |
| | | |
| {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" | | {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" |
Line 5,120: |
Line 5,120: |
| |} | | |} |
| | | |
− | In fact, however, it is the case that:
| + | On the contrary, we have the following fact: |
| | | |
− | : [''m'',] = [''m'',1]/[1] = [''m'']/[1] = 4/7.
| + | {| align="center" cellspacing="6" width="90%" |
| + | | <math>[\mathrm{m,}] ~=~ \frac{[\mathrm{m,}\mathbf{1}]}{[\mathbf{1}]} ~=~ \frac{[\mathrm{m}]}{[\mathbf{1}]} ~=~ \frac{4}{7}.</math> |
| + | |} |
| | | |
| In sum, it is not the case in the Othello example that "men are just as apt to be black as things in general". | | In sum, it is not the case in the Othello example that "men are just as apt to be black as things in general". |